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The cap rate spread between Brickell office and Doral industrial tells most of the Miami story in one number. A few years ago that spread sat under 100 basis points. Today it's wider — much wider on stabilized product — and the direction of travel hasn't fully resolved. Brickell office has weathered the hybrid-work conversation better than most U.S. urban cores. The financial services migration out of the Northeast pulled real tenant demand into Class A trophy product, and rents held. But the Class B+ assets a block off the water tell a different story, with leasing velocity that hasn't matched the trophy buildings and cap rates that have widened from the high-fours to something like high-fives or low-sixes on the better deals. The math gets uncomfortable above 6.5 in this submarket.

Doral industrial sits on a separate curve entirely. Last-mile distribution close to the airport and the Port of Miami stayed bid through most of the rate-tightening cycle, and the cap rate compression that started in 2020 didn't fully unwind. Stabilized Class A distribution there still trades in the high-fives, a number that would look generous in Phoenix or Dallas but reflects the structural supply constraint that the Everglades-edge geography creates. The interesting question is whether the spread between Brickell B+ office and Doral industrial persists. If office continues to widen, Brickell B+ could see a 7-handle on some assets, and the basis math on repositioning starts to make sense. That hasn't happened broadly yet. But the conversations are getting louder, and any underwriting that supports a repositioning play depends on the kind of cap rate assumptions a credible Miami commercial property appraisal can actually defend against today's thin comp sets. Defensibility is the question the math by itself can't answer.